When politicians lose the plot
There are dangers in complacency — just ask Pierre Poilievre.
You’d think that blowing a 25-point lead and losing your seat would make a fellow reflect but as we’ve seen throughout 2025, that’s not something Pierre Poilievre is especially good at. As we approach the Conservative convention and more interestingly his mandatory leadership review (yes, he’ll hang on; no, it won’t help), I look south of the border for signs of similar hubris.
The Democrats just won another significant and surprising victory in a special Iowa election.
A Democrat won a special election for an Iowa state Senate seat on Tuesday, setting back Republicans’ bid to regain a supermajority in the chamber and drumming up excitement among Democrats plotting a comeback in next year’s midterms.
Renee Hardman, a member of the West Des Moines City Council, earned more than double the votes of Republican candidate Lucas Loftin for Iowa State Senate District 16, a suburban Des Moines jurisdiction. Her election fills a vacancy after the death of Sen. Claire Celsi, a Democrat, in October. Hardman will be the first Black woman to serve in the Iowa Senate.
Since the general election, there have been a number of upsets — at least if you’re Donald Trump, you’re annoyed. Including the one recently where a strongly pro-Trump Tennessee district elected a Republican but only by a small margin.
It’s easy to look at these news and feel buoyed, especially if you’re a Democrat. I don’t mean to take anything away from individual candidates and their organizations who have no doubt worked very hard for those results.
But.
The danger here is to look at those results and say, “hey, we’re winning this!” and then forget about fundamentals. Kind of like the Poilievre Conservatives did in 2025. They were riding high and they lost. Why? Because they failed to understand that their popularity was relative to the guy who was then in power.
Pierre Poilievre was headed for the PM’s office because Canadians were truly sick and tired of Justin Trudeau. Once Trudeau left, and was replaced by Mark Carney, Poilievre suddenly lost whatever appeal he had. And he failed to adjust his strategy for the changed landscape. Plus people don’t like him.
My read of the situation is that the Democrats are doing well these days in great part because even Americans who voted for Trump are souring on their president, big time.
Look, in politics as in many other things, a win’s a win and you don’t start fretting about losing the day after your victory. But equally important, in politics, what brings you not just victory but the legitimacy and moral authority to govern is the story you’re telling your people. Donald Trump told everyone he’d make life more affordable and America great again. Neither of which came true. That’s a big problem he’s having, and Democrats are making gains because of that.
But what’s the Democrats’ story? That they’re not Donald Trump? OK, but then what? One day, Donald Trump will leave, one way or the other. What’s going to be the Dems’ story then? The same one Poilievre just lived through?
It is a truism in marketing that nobody wants the best mattress but everyone wants a great night sleep. Good mattress companies don’t advertise the technical details of their products. They advertise how happy, well-rested and sprightly you’ll feel once you sleep on their product. Who cares what kind of space-age spring-loaded memory foam is inside?
Similarly, very few people look at political platforms and detailed plans. But we pay attention to the tag line. The gist of the message. Pierre Poilievre’s story was — still is! — that Canada is broken because the Liberals broke it and only he can fix it. So far, Canadians aren’t buying that. Mark Carney’s sales pitch was that he was, among the options on offer, best suited to deal with Donald Trump and that he would work to reshape and reposition Canada to pivot away from our dependence on the United States as our closest and most stable partner. People bought that.
The year 2026 will be pivotal for the Carney Liberals. They don’t have a lot of actual accomplishments to show for their time in power yet. Up to a point, that’s OK because their sales pitch didn’t promise anything quick. Canadians understand that. But at some point there needs to be visible signs of progress and I don’t mean fixing an obscure part of the immigration system for a small number of so-called “lost Canadians.” I mean something bigger, like, I don’t know, building thousands of affordable homes? Or maybe some sign of successful economic realignment or — hell, maybe some good news on that CUSMA review?
David Coletto came up with research on this earlier in 2025 which, if I were running the Liberal government, I would pay close attention to:
Complex policy initiatives, like cutting federal spending by 15%, trade negotiations with the Trump administration, or whether or not it’s a good idea to keep the foreign worker program, require context, repetition, and clear explanation. But if half the country never even hears about the plan in the first place, or only encounters it through partisan posts on social media, the likelihood of confusion and backlash skyrockets.
[…]
Meanwhile, governments still act as if issuing a press release or staging a press conference ensures public awareness. It doesn’t. Coverage might reach a slice of older Canadians, but it will miss entire generations whose information diets are built around digital platforms.
Stories are everything in politics, whether we want to admit this or not. The story of 2025 in Canada was how we avoided electing Maple-MAGA and instead chose the competent adult with the smarts and skillset to help position Canada so that we survive whatever chaos Donald Trump inflicts on his country and the world.
It would be foolish to try and predict what the defining story of 2026 will be from this early in the year, but I’m pretty sure it will include something about how successful we are, relative to other countries, in repositioning ourselves and not just riding out the orange storm but thriving in whatever new world order emerges from it.
In the United States, it will be interesting to watch the new mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, and how successful he is at implementing his affordability agenda. Then of course, the November mid-terms will be hugely important. All indicators at this time point to a giant wallop for the Republicans but beyond just looking at the results, I’ll be intently focused on the story the Democrats are telling. It will matter a great deal for the 2028 cycle. Given how important it is that we return to grown-up governance (Republican or Democrat, I don’t care, just not MAGA), the story people tell to move away from Trump will matter, and I sure hope the anti-MAGA crowd gets it right and don’t become complacent and… lose again.